Three Big 2025 Formula 1 Predictions

The start of testing brings a new season - and some big prognostications

With the start of official pre-season testing within 20 hours of the publication of this column, it’s time to take a look at the season ahead.

2025 is on track to be a very interesting season. The past couple of years, Red Bull Racing had a clear leg-up on the competition and testing seemed like a slog.

This year, that’s not the case. Red Bull ended last season like a wounded animal, falling to third in constructor standings as both McLaren and Ferrari drove past the boys from Milton Keynes.

It seems like this year, we may be on track for potentially five teams in WCC contention, depending on how Mercedes and Aston Martin Aramco spent the winter. Obviously, it’s unlikely all five will be in contention for it. But any of them could be, depending on how the cards fall (and if Lance Stroll can minimize his losses for Aston Martin).

Next week, we’ll be publishing a preseason ranking of teams based off testing. But with that being said, there are still three big predictions I want to get off of my chest before I see any cars on-track.

Cadillac Chooses Colton Herta and Sebastian Vettel for 2026

If you haven’t noticed yet, the Grand Prix Focus logo has 11 letters in different colors. The first 10 are representative of the 10 F1 teams, based off where they finished in last season’s constructor standings.

The 11th, a gold color, represents Cadillac and their future F1 team. Although Cadillac will not field a car this season, they should still be a regular topic of news and discussion as the first American OEM to really throw themselves headlong into Grand Prix racing. If not, at least the first in a very long time.

Motorsport reported Monday evening that Cadillac is close to confirming their driver lineup. Colton Herta is the obvious choice to be in one of those seats, as the team wants a young American to pair with a veteran.

Herta will have 34 Super License points to start the season, needing 40 to be eligible for a full SL in 2026. But that should be relatively easy to pick up, even if he can’t finish where he needs to in IndyCar.

Teams must field a rookie driver in at least two FP1s per car. Cadillac is entering F1 in an alliance with Ferrari, which has no juniors currently that they are prioritizing seat team to (sorry, Arthur Leclerc).

Thus, Herta could try and grab four SL points in four FP1s in a deal with the Ferrari team. Kick Sauber is a Ferrari customer team that needs a rookie driver for Nico Hulkenberg’s ride, and Haas has both seats needing a rookie driver. So Herta has options, and this is assuming he can’t even finish top 5 in IndyCar points when he definitely can.

The second driver will likely be a veteran. A lot of people think Sergio Perez will be in this seat. Some believe Valtteri Bottas will be a contender. And some poor saps think Daniel Ricciardo might have a glorious return to F1 in a Caddy.

I think the best option here would be one not a lot are thinking of: Sebastian Vettel.

Yes, Vettel is a personal favorite of mine, so I am a bit bias here. But hear me out. Those other three drivers are also-rans. Used up. Bottas has the best argument to still be in F1 and even then, he only looked good against a largely mediocre Zhou Guanyu.

Vettel has had a few years off now to relax and clear his mind. If you believe the German media, supposedly he wants to come back but was denied by Sauber in favor of Hulkenberg. The Vettel who could race in F1 in 2026 would be a much different Vettel from the burnt-out driver who called it quits at Aston Martin.

Vettel would bring legitimacy to a new 11th team among the snotty European boomers. He’d bring plenty of sponsor interest. And I think he would win the new team some much-needed brownie points with FOM, who could make a lot of money over a beloved four-time champion returning.

There Will Be No Changes to Red Bull or Racing Bull’s Lineups Midseason

Regardless of how Isack Hadjar performs relative to Yuki Tsunoda or if Liam Lawson bombs against Max Verstappen, neither lineup will change until the end of the season.

Obviously, this prediction is rescinded in the event of injury. But I can’t imagine Red Bull making a change after having made a huge swing by choosing Lawson over Tsunoda for the main team seat.

They have to justify their decision, even if both teams are in a rough state by the summer break.

One thing that should be obvious, however, is that Arvid Lindblad will likely have a seat at Racing Bulls next season in place of Tsunoda. Lindblad has been a favorite of team principal Christian Horner for a while now, so if he can follow up his solid fourth place in Formula 3 last year and Formula Oceania championship over the winter with a decent Formula 2 result, he should be in a prime spot.

Tsunoda, meanwhile, really doesn’t have much of a leg to stand on in a world without Honda supporting Red Bull. I think Tsunoda has proven to be a fine F1 driver who is worthy of a seat. But with Stroll and Fernando Alonso hogging the seats at the Honda powered Aston Martin team in 2026, he just seems destined to be Honda’s new Japanese representative in IndyCar, taking the torch from Takuma Sato.

Charles Leclerc Will Be Champion

My philosophy with F1 drivers is that you can usually judge a driver by how many mistakes they make.

Last year was an excellent example of this, as Max Verstappen won in part because of how many mistakes Lando Norris made throughout the season.

Third in points was Charles Leclerc, the only driver in Verstappen’s tier as far as mistake avoidance goes.

Most of Leclerc’s issues came as a consequence of strategy decisions taking him out of multiple races (Montreal, Silverstone) and by Ferrari’s relative slowness in the summer months. I don’t blame Ferrari so much for those decisions because every team screws strategy up a couple of times a year. It’s far less of a mess as the 2022 Ferrari team clowning things up on pit road every round.

Had 2024 Leclerc and the Ferrari team had raced in 2022 with that fast F1-75, that championship would have gone down to the wire. With that in mind, and the chance that Ferrari is able to keep its speed throughout the year this time, Leclerc is my choice to win the championship.

Lewis Hamilton is in for the toughest challenge of his career, going up against a driver firmly entrenched with this Ferrari squad. If anybody can rise up to the challenge, it would be Hamilton. But at 40 years old and having shown real signs of losing his qualifying speed over the last year, there are serious doubts he’ll be able to.